Explainer · 2-Min Read

The Top-Two
Primary Math

Nine Democrats splitting ~60% of the vote.
Two conservatives each needing just 16–17% to make the top two.
This isn't spin. It's arithmetic.

⏱ 2-Minute Read

How California's Top-Two Primary Actually Works

California doesn't run separate party primaries. Instead, every candidate from every party appears on a single June ballot. The top two vote-getters — regardless of party — advance to the November general election.

That means a November ballot could have two Democrats. Or two conservatives. The party label is irrelevant. Only the vote count matters.

This system was designed to produce moderate outcomes. But when one side fragments and the other consolidates, it produces something different entirely: a historic opportunity.

Nine Democrats. Two Conservatives. Do The Division.

The 2026 governor's field has over a dozen candidates. On the left, former State Controller Betty Yee just entered — adding another name to a pile that already includes nine or more serious Democrats. With Betty Yee in, the left side of the ballot is splintered.

On the right, there are two serious candidates: Chad Bianco (Riverside County Sheriff) and Steve Hilton (conservative commentator, former senior policy advisor). That's it.

Illustrative Vote Distribution — June 2026 Primary
Chad Bianco
~17%
Steve Hilton
~16%
Dem #1
~7%
Dem #2
~6%
Dems #3–9+
~40%
← Threshold to advance: ~16–17% of total vote · Both conservatives clear it
Illustrative. Based on historical top-two race modeling.
The Core Equation
~60%
Total vote going to Democrats (split 9+ ways)
~40%
Total vote going to 2 conservatives
~17%
Each conservative needs to make top two
Source: California primary data and nonpartisan election modeling.

The math is simple: if two conservatives split roughly 33–35% of the vote evenly, they each clear the threshold to advance. Meanwhile, nine Democrats splitting 60% of the vote get about 6–7% each — not enough to top the ballot.

When Betty Yee entered the race, the left got more fragmented. Every new Democrat in the field is math working in our favor.

R vs R Runoff Probability — Before & After Slavet Exit
12%
Before Jon Slavet dropped out
(three Rs splitting the vote)
~25%
After Slavet exit
(two Rs, consolidated)
Source: Emerson College Polling, Feb 2026; California primary modeling. Probability doubled overnight when the conservative field consolidated to two candidates.

The filing deadline is March 6. After midnight, the ballot is locked. The math is set. And this window doesn't reopen.

Why Both. Not One.

Take Back California PAC is endorsing both Bianco and Hilton simultaneously — the only dual-endorsement strategy in the race. Here's why it matters: if we only back one, we risk splitting the conservative vote unevenly. One candidate might surge past the threshold while the other falls just short.

With both endorsed, we can drive coordinated turnout for both — ensuring neither drops below the ~17% threshold. Both in. Both advancing to November. And November with no Democrat on the governor's ballot means Democrat turnout craters across every down-ballot race in the state.

Every Assembly district. Every Congressional seat. Every local race. All of it becomes competitive when Democrats have no reason to show up in November.

The math is straightforward — and it favors two conservatives making the runoff.

Fund The Strategy

The Math Works.
The Money Activates It.

Knowing the math is free. Running the field program, voter contact, and coordinated turnout operation — that costs money. Help fund the only dual-endorsement strategy in the race.

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