This morning, Jon Slavet announced he's ending his campaign for California Governor. And while the headlines will treat it as a minor story, the political math underneath it is anything but minor.
California's top-two primary doesn't care about party. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. With nine Democrats splitting their side of the ballot and only two serious Republicans in the race, the path to two Republicans in the November runoff just got meaningfully wider.
R vs R Runoff Probability — Before & After Slavet Exit
Source: TopTwoCA.com election simulator by Paul Mitchell
Every Republican who consolidates out of the race concentrates the vote behind Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton. Meanwhile, the Democrats keep adding candidates and splitting their share of the vote thinner with each entry.
This dynamic hasn't played out in California since the state adopted the top-two primary system in 2012. Two Republicans in a governor's runoff is no longer a fantasy scenario. The simulator shows it. The math shows it.
THE WINDOW IS OPENING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE FUND THE STRATEGY BEFORE IT CLOSES.
Take Back California PAC is running the only dual-endorsement strategy in the race — backing both Bianco and Hilton simultaneously to ensure the conservative vote consolidates in the right places without splitting. Read more about the dual endorsement strategy →
Run the numbers yourself at the Top Two Simulator →